The Hill News

After weeks of excitement and surprise, it is time to try to make meaning out of the momentous events in Tunisia and Egypt. 

Are we on the brink of a democratic tsunami across the region? Or will we discover that Tunisia and Egypt were special cases, and street violence in Yemen, Jordan, Iran and elsewhere will not lead to similar outcomes? What is the right balance between seeing each country's unique history and characteristics, while identifying structural similarities and ways in which would-be democrats and dissidents in one place are inspired by other cases?

Let's acknowledge that there are multiple factors driving events in the region. Bumper sticker interpretations - it's all angry young men in search of jobs and dignity, or it's a grand opportunity for non-democratic Islamist forces to exploit, or the military and vested interests will still prevail over the protesters - are to be avoided. Even if they contain a germ of truth, the complicated poli! tical, economic and cultural factors at play in the region defy simple slogans. To understand what these two cases might tell us about future trends in the region, we'll be better served by examining relevant lessons from the past and assessing the conditions that drove political change in Egypt and Tunisia.

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