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Friday, July 8, 2011

postheadericon Five milestones on the road to Tripoli

For NATO and the West, the twenty-first century starts neither in Baghdad nor Kabul, but on the road to Tripoli. But, with too few allies doing too little too slowly, America, its British and French allies, and assorted hangers on, are now at the "go all the way or go away" point.

Colonel Gadhafi succeeds simply by hanging on. Indeed, each day that passes with the regime in place "legitimizes" Gadhafi. He might be unpopular amongst Arab elites, but defying the West is often enough to create a cult on the Arab street. And, strategically, the West cannot afford another war in which America and its allies appear far weaker than reality. The West’s collective strategic influence has already been much weakened by irresolution in Iraq and Afghanistan. 

Why is Libya important? First, Libya and the struggle of the Libyan people is itself important in principle. A successful transition to Libyan democracy would set a precedent for the increasingly directionless Arab! Spring. Second, Post-Gadhafi Islamism is not the threat, but rather the vacuum that could lead to Islamism expelling democracy. Third, the West is already embroiled. Libya is therefore important in fact.  

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