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Friday, September 24, 2010

postheadericon Poll: GOP has big advantage over Dems among likely voters

Republicans maintain a big advantage over Democrats among likely voters in a CNN test of the generic ballot.

Fifty-three percent of likely voters said they'd vote for a generic Republican candidate, versus 44 percent who said they would vote for a Democrat, according to a CNN/Opinion Research poll released Friday.

The nine-point advantage for the GOP is the largest advantage they've had so far this cycle. A little over a year ago, a poll conducted Oct. 30-Nov. 1, 2009 found that Democrats had a 50-44 percent advantage over Republicans.

The poll is the latest in a series of indicators that Republicans might be poised for major election night gains. The GOP's within striking distance of winning back the House, though race-by-race polling shows that winning back the Senate could! be an uphill climb.

Still, other major test of the generics have been more mixed. Gallup's generic ballot this week showed Democrats with a one-point lead, 46-45 percent -- after Republicans had led by 10 points three weeks earlier. An Associated Press/GfK poll conducted Sept. 8-13, though, showed results similar to CNN's. In that poll, Republicans led 53-43 among likely voters.

The CNN poll, conducted Sept. 21-23, has a 4.5 percent margin of error among likely voter samples.

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