The Hill News

In 1976, I was a full time speechwriter for President Ford. By June 1, he had not locked up the nomination, and was trailing Jimmy Carter in the polls by 33%. After a good acceptance speech at the Republican Convention in August, he was behind by 10%; after the first debate with Carter, the race was even. Though Ford eventually lost, this story illustrates how volatile the electorate can be. It is no different in 2012. As I write, a CNN Poll shows Mitt Romney behind Barack Obama by 10%; but the CBS/New York Times Poll shows the race dead even. So between now and the election, what can these two candidates do to improve their odds of winning? To answer this question and handicap the race, I focus on four major factors.

First, President Obama is going to need a large lead in the polls to win. He has run behind his predicted poll numbers in every race he has been in. He ran behind his poll numbers against Hillary Clinton in the primaries of 2008; he didn’t beat ! John McCain by nearly the margin predicted in the polls in the general election. Thus, if  Romney is only 5 or 6% behind in the polls, he has a real shot at winning. Advantage Romney.

Second, each candidate will have an important choice to make when it comes to selecting a vice presidential nominee. But President Obama has a slight advantage, and here is why. The Republican Convention comes first. So if Romney is doing well in the polls, and has made a smart choice for a running mate, Obama can dump Vice President Biden, and pick a fresh new face that might improve the president’s odds of winning. It hasn’t been done in a while, but Franklin Roosevelt dumped two vice presidents, John Nance Garner and Henry Wallace, during his presidency. Advantage Obama, if he dumps Biden.

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