The Hill News

Some election-watchers have suggested similarities between this year’s midterm elections and those of 1994, when Republicans won big victories in Congress. For instance, both elections occurred (or will occur) after two years of unified Democratic control of government, under an increasingly unpopular president, and with motivated conservative voters. By implication, the 2010 midterms should, as in 1994, bring big victories for Republicans and put President Obama on the defensive.

But despite these common features, there are just too many differences between 1994 and now for the analogy to be very helpful for predicting the future. For one thing, Republicans are likely to win control of the House but not the Senate, whereas they won both chambers in 1994. (This itself will be unusual: Republicans haven’t won just the House since 1858.) But there are three other, more important differences that suggest what Congress may be like next year.

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