The Hill News

In my view, Romney needs near 40 percent of the New Hampshire vote to avoid what would prove to be a significant defeat, regardless of the first reaction of political insiders. The key number is not Mitt versus his conservative opponents, but Mitt versus 50 percent-plus-one of delegates, in a GOP system where proportional representation makes this harder than many analysts realize.

I agree with most of the points raised by my colleague A.B. Stoddard in her well-done post yesterday. Let me take the analysis even further, into the convention, with my view that Romney is the most likely nominee but the chances of a brokered convention or a post-Super Tuesday draft of someone like Mitch Daniels are greater than people think.

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